Profitable Investing & Market Timing Update for 12/29/2017

Topics included in this week’s Profitable Investing & Market Timing Review

Also watch accompanying video:

  1. Stock market outlook for 2018
  2. Weekly Market Timing indicator remains strong
  3. Daily Market Timing remains weak
  4. Suggested market posture for the first week of trading in 2018 & stocks to watch

1) Stock market outlook for 2018

Stock Market 2018The economy is growing faster than a year ago.  S&P earnings are continuing to grow and grow faster than a year ago.

However…

Interest rates are on the increase.  We have a new tax plan that still isn’t well understood.  The percentage of bullish advisors is 64.10% which is almost at an all-time high.  The media keeps shouting “bear market ahead”!

With an exceptional year like 2017 behind us, it’s hard to expect that 2018 will be better.

I make a habit of never making predictions.  No one really knows what will happen in the future.  And with investing anything can happen.

So I will continue to measure the supply and demand for stocks just like always with the market timing indicator which has never let me down.

Here is what the market timing indicator is showing now…

2) Weekly Market Timing indicator remains strong

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Stock Watchlist for Week of 01/01/2018

Profitable Investing stock watchlist for this weeks market..

See how companies qualify for this list.

Any new purchases into the model stock portfolio will come from these 100 stocks only.

In addition, new purchases will focus on the strongest sectors.

Stock positions already held in the current stock portfolio are not shown in this list.

SymbolNameSector
ADSAlliance Data Systems (ADS)Financial
AETAetna, Inc. (AET)Health Care
AFGAmerican Fncl Group, Inc. (AFG)Financial
ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)Industrial
ALLAllstate Corp. (ALL)Financial
AMGAffiliated Managers Group Inc. (AMG)Financial
ANTMAnthem, Inc. (ANTM)Health Care
ASGNOn Assignment, Inc. (ASGN)Cyclicals
AZOAutozone Inc. Nevada (AZO)Cyclicals
BBYBest Buy Co, Inc. (BBY)Cyclicals
BECNBeacon Roofing Supply Inc. (BECN)Cyclicals
BLDTopBuild Corp. (BLD)Industrial
BLDRBuilders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR)Industrial
CMAComerica, Inc. (CMA)Financial
CMCSAComcast Corp. (CMCSA)Cyclicals
CMICummins Inc. (CMI)Industrial
CNCCentene Corp. (CNC)Health Care
CNICanadian National Rail Co. (CNI)Industrial
CPCanadian Pacific Railway (CP)Industrial
CPACOPA Holdings SA (CPA)Industrial
CRICarter Holdings Inc. (CRI)Cyclicals
DLTRDollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)Cyclicals
EBSEmergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS)Health Care
EBSBMeridian Interstate Bancorp, Inc. (EBSB)Financial
EMEEMCOR Group, Inc. (EME)Industrial
ESRXExpress Scripts, Inc. (ESRX)Health Care
EVREvercore Partners Inc. (EVR)Financial
FBHSFortune Brands Home & Security, Inc. (FBHS)Industrial
FDXFedEx Corp. (FDX)Industrial
FFIVF5 Networks, Inc. (FFIV)Technology
FLTFleetCor Technologies Inc. (FLT)Financial
FNFFidelity National Financial, Inc. (FNF)Financial
GCBCGreene County Bancorp, Inc. (GCBC)Financial
GGALGrupo Financiero Galicia S.A. ADS (GGAL)Financial
GILGildan Activewear, Inc. (GIL)Cyclicals
GNTXGentex Corp. (GNTX)Cyclicals
GPSGap, Inc. (GPS)Cyclicals
HCAHCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)Health Care
HFCHollyFrontier Corp. (HFC)Energy
HIIQHealth Insurance Innovations, Inc. (HIIQ)Health Care
HUNHuntsman Corp. (HUN)Materials
INGRIngredion Inc. (INGR)Staples
INTCIntel Corp. (INTC)Technology
ITICInvestors Title Co. (ITIC)Financial
JPMJ.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM)Financial
KBHKB Home (KBH)Cyclicals
KMGKMG Chemicals, Inc. (KMG)Materials
LCIILCI Industries Inc. (LCII)Cyclicals
LUVSouthwest Airlines Co. (LUV)Industrial
MGAMagna International Inc. (MGA)Cyclicals
MGLNMagellan Health Services, Inc. (MGLN)Health Care
MHOM/I Homes, Inc. (MHO)Cyclicals
MIDDMiddleby Corp. (MIDD)Cyclicals
MPCMarathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC)Energy
MTZMastec, Inc. (MTZ)Industrial
NOAHNoah Holdings Ltd. (NOAH)Financial
NTESNetEase.com, Inc. (NTES)Technology
NXSTNexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST)Cyclicals
OCOwens Corning Inc. (OC)Industrial
ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY)Cyclicals
OZRKBank of the Ozarks (OZRK)Financial
PATKPatrick Industries, Inc. (PATK)Industrial
PGRProgressive Corp. (PGR)Financial
PHMPulteGroup, Inc. (PHM)Cyclicals
PKGPackaging Corp Of America (PKG)Materials
PKXPohang Iron & Steel (Posco) (PKX)Materials
PLCEThe Children's Place, Inc. (PLCE)Cyclicals
PNCPNC Financial Services Gr (PNC)Financial
PRAHPRA Health Sciences, Inc. (PRAH)Health Care
PRIPrimerica Inc. (PRI)Financial
PUKPrudential PLC (PUK)Financial
RESRPC, Inc. (RES)Energy
RJFRaymond James Financial Inc. (RJF)Financial
SBNYSignature Bank (SBNY)Financial
SHOOSteven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO)Cyclicals
SHPGShire Ltd. (SHPG)Health Care
SIVBSVB Financial Group (SIVB)Financial
SKMSKTelecom Co. Ltd. (SKM)Technology
SKXSkechers Usa, Inc. (SKX)Cyclicals
SNASnap On Inc. Holding Co. (SNA)Cyclicals
SODASodaStream International Ltd. (SODA)Cyclicals
STCStewart Information Services Corp. (STC)Financial
TCXTucows Inc. (TCX)Technology
THGHanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG)Financial
TJXTJX Cos., Inc. (TJX)Cyclicals
TNETTriNet Group, Inc. (TNET)Cyclicals
TOLToll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)Cyclicals
TROWT. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. (TROW)Financial
TSNTyson Foods Inc Cl A (TSN)Staples
TSSTotal System Services, Inc. (TSS)Financial
WBAWalgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA)Staples
WLKWestlake Chemical Corp. (WLK)Materials
WYNWyndham Worldwide Corp. (WYN)Cyclicals

Stock Portfolio as of 12/29/2017

Profitable Investing Stock Portfolio Summary

Portfolio current holdings returns as of this week (not including dividends received):

  • Average days in positions = 112.69 (see table)
  • Average % return = 12.02% (see table)
  • Calculated annualized effective return = 365/112.69*12.02% = 38.92%

Read stock market update in the profitable investing stock market weekly update.

Portfolio Stock Transactions This Week

Continue reading

Profitable Investing & Market Timing Update for 12/22/2017

Topics included in this week’s Profitable Investing & Market Timing Review

  1. President Trump tax-plan get’s final approval
  2. S&P 500 Earnings continue to increase
  3. Weekly Market Timing indicator remains strong
  4. Daily Market Timing indicator weakens – another buying opportunity?
  5. Market posture for the short week of trading before 2018

1) Trump Tax Plan

President Trump finally got the tax plan approved.  Now I guess we have to figure out what’s in it?

Last minute negotiations and trades to buy politicians votes ensured the approval of the first tax & revenue update in 30 years!

I’m still not sure if my tax bill will increase or decrease.  I guess I’ll find out – but not for sure until April of 2019?

As usual in the stock market it was buy on the rumor of the tax bill passing and sell on the news.  Maybe that was due also to being close to the end of the year.  But early week trading was bullish.

Late in the week trading tapered off with some price decreases.  Probably due to tax bill news, a long weekend (markets are closed on Monday), and proximity to 2018.

So the big question is what is the stock market going to do in 2018.  Honestly no-one really knows – but there is no shortage of people willing to make a prediction.

However, the profitable investing & market timing strategy will help keep us on the profitable investing side of the market no matter what happens.

2) S&P 500 Earnings continue to increase

Continue reading

Stock Watchlist for Week of 12/26/2017

Profitable Investing stock watchlist for this weeks market..

See how companies qualify for this list.

Any new purchases into the model stock portfolio will come from these 100 stocks only.

In addition, new purchases will focus on the strongest sectors.

Stock positions already held in the current stock portfolio are not shown in this list.

SymbolNameSector
ABBVAbbVie Inc. (ABBV)HealthÿCare
ADSAlliance Data Systems (ADS)Financial
AETAetna, Inc. (AET)HealthÿCare
AFGAmerican Fncl Group, Inc. (AFG)Financial
ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)Industrial
ALLAllstate Corp. (ALL)Financial
AMGAffiliated Managers Group Inc. (AMG)Financial
ANTMAnthem, Inc. (ANTM)HealthÿCare
ASGNOn Assignment, Inc. (ASGN)Cyclicals
AZOAutozone Inc. Nevada (AZO)Cyclicals
BBYBest Buy Co, Inc. (BBY)Cyclicals
BECNBeacon Roofing Supply Inc. (BECN)Cyclicals
BLDRBuilders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR)Industrial
CICIGNA Corp. (CI)HealthÿCare
CMAComerica, Inc. (CMA)Financial
CMCSAComcast Corp. (CMCSA)Cyclicals
CMICummins Inc. (CMI)Industrial
CNCCentene Corp. (CNC)HealthÿCare
COHRCoherent, Inc. (COHR)Technology
CPACOPA Holdings SA (CPA)Industrial
CRICarter Holdings Inc. (CRI)Cyclicals
DLTRDollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)Cyclicals
EBSEmergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS)HealthÿCare
EBSBMeridian Interstate Bancorp, Inc. (EBSB)Financial
EMEEMCOR Group, Inc. (EME)Industrial
EMNEastman Chemical Co. (EMN)Materials
ESRXExpress Scripts, Inc. (ESRX)HealthÿCare
EVREvercore Partners Inc. (EVR)Financial
EWBCEast West Bancorp, Inc. (EWBC)Financial
FDXFedEx Corp. (FDX)Industrial
FFIVF5 Networks, Inc. (FFIV)Technology
FLTFleetCor Technologies Inc. (FLT)Financial
FMCFMC Corp. (FMC)Materials
FNBGFNB Bancorp Inc. (FNBG)Financial
FNFFidelity National Financial, Inc. (FNF)Financial
GGenpact Ltd. (G)Industrial
GCBCGreene County Bancorp, Inc. (GCBC)Financial
GGALGrupo Financiero Galicia S.A. ADS (GGAL)Financial
GILGildan Activewear, Inc. (GIL)Cyclicals
GPSGap, Inc. (GPS)Cyclicals
HIIQHealth Insurance Innovations, Inc. (HIIQ)HealthÿCare
HUNHuntsman Corp. (HUN)Materials
INGRIngredion Inc. (INGR)Staples
INTCIntel Corp. (INTC)Technology
IPInternational Paper Co. (IP)Materials
ITICInvestors Title Co. (ITIC)Financial
JPMJ.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM)Financial
KBHKB Home (KBH)Cyclicals
LCIILCI Industries Inc. (LCII)Cyclicals
LNCLincoln National Corp. (LNC)Financial
LUVSouthwest Airlines Co. (LUV)Industrial
MGAMagna International Inc. (MGA)Cyclicals
MGLNMagellan Health Services, Inc. (MGLN)HealthÿCare
MHKMohawk Inds, Inc. (MHK)Cyclicals
MHOM/I Homes, Inc. (MHO)Cyclicals
MIDDMiddleby Corp. (MIDD)Cyclicals
MPCMarathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC)Energy
MTZMastec, Inc. (MTZ)Industrial
NOAHNoah Holdings Ltd. (NOAH)Financial
NTESNetEase.com, Inc. (NTES)Technology
NXSTNexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST)Cyclicals
OCOwens Corning Inc. (OC)Industrial
ONON Semiconductor Corp. (ON)Technology
ORBKOrbotech Ltd. (ORBK)Technology
ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY)Cyclicals
OZRKBank of the Ozarks (OZRK)Financial
PAMPampa Energia SA (PAM)Utilities
PATKPatrick Industries, Inc. (PATK)Industrial
PFGPrincipal Financial Group (PFG)Financial
PGRProgressive Corp. (PGR)Financial
PHMPulteGroup, Inc. (PHM)Cyclicals
PKGPackaging Corp Of America (PKG)Materials
PKXPohang Iron & Steel (Posco) (PKX)Materials
PLCEThe Children's Place, Inc. (PLCE)Cyclicals
PNCPNC Financial Services Gr (PNC)Financial
PRIPrimerica Inc. (PRI)Financial
RESRPC, Inc. (RES)Energy
RJFRaymond James Financial Inc. (RJF)Financial
SHOOSteven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO)Cyclicals
SHPGShire Ltd. (SHPG)HealthÿCare
SIVBSVB Financial Group (SIVB)Financial
SNASnap On Inc. Holding Co. (SNA)Cyclicals
SNXSynnex Corp. (SNX)Technology
SODASodaStream International Ltd. (SODA)Cyclicals
STCStewart Information Services Corp. (STC)Financial
TCXTucows Inc. (TCX)Technology
TECDTech Data Corp. (TECD)Technology
TEOTelecom Argentina (TEO)Technology
TERTeradyne, Inc. (TER)Technology
THGHanover Insurance Group, Inc. (THG)Financial
TJXTJX Cos., Inc. (TJX)Cyclicals
TNETTriNet Group, Inc. (TNET)Cyclicals
TOLToll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)Cyclicals
TROWT. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. (TROW)Financial
TSNTyson Foods Inc Cl A (TSN)Staples
UFPIUniversal Forest Products, Inc. (UFPI)Industrial
VNTVVantiv, Inc. (VNTV)Technology
WALWestern Alliance Bancorp. (WAL)Financial
WLKWestlake Chemical Corp. (WLK)Materials
WTFCWintrust Financial Corp. (WTFC)Financial

Stock Portfolio as of 12/15/2017

Profitable Investing Stock Portfolio Summary

Portfolio current holdings returns as of this week (not including dividends received):

  • Average days in positions = 111
  • Average % return = 13.62%
  • Calculated annualized effective return = 365/111*13.62% = 44.79%

Read stock market update in the profitable investing stock market weekly update.

Portfolio Stock Transactions This Week

Continue reading

Profitable Investing & Market Timing Weekly Update for 12/15/2017

Stock Market Timing Week in Review

Interest Rates Increase

The last Federal Reserve meeting of the year was a major news story of the week.

rising-interest-rates

Along with new projections of economic growth, the updated Fed funds target rate is now between 1.25% and 1.50%.

As interest rates are still historically low, the Fed announced more rate increases next year.

The Fed noted solid employment gains and rising economic activity would allow interest rates to rise back to “normal” levels.

Typically what happens at some point in the economic cycle is that interest rates increase sharply to slow the economy down.  The Fed usually uses the inflation rate to determine the speed of the economy.

At the present time the inflation rate is hovering around 2% and has been stable to slightly decreasing for the last 6 months.

So it appears that the timing of the Fed’s typical ratcheting up interest rates sharply is still in the distant future.

So let’s take a look at the…

Weekly Market Timing

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Stock Watchlist for Week of 12/18/2017

Profitable Investing stock watchlist for this weeks market..

See how companies qualify for this list.

Any new purchases into the model stock portfolio will come from these 100 stocks only.

In addition, new purchases will focus on the strongest sectors.

Stock positions already held in the current stock portfolio are not shown in this list.

SymbolSectorIndustry
ABBVHealth CareBiotechnology
ADSFinancialFinancial Administration
AELFinancialLife Insurance
AETHealth CareHealth Care Providers
ALLFinancialProperty-Casualty Insurance
AMGFinancialAsset Managers
AMNCyclicalsBusiness Training Agencies
ANTMHealth CareHealth Care Providers
ASGNCyclicalsBusiness Training Agencies
AVGOTechnologySemiconductors
AZOCyclicalsSpecialty Retailers
BECNCyclicalsHome Improvement Retailers
BLDIndustrialBuilding Materials
BLDRIndustrialBuilding Materials
BOFIFinancialBanks
CARBTechnologyInternet
CIHealth CareHealth Care Providers
CMAFinancialBanks
CMCSACyclicalsEntertainment
COHRTechnologyElectronic Equipment
CPIndustrialRailroad
CPAIndustrialAirlines
CRICyclicalsClothing & Accessories
DLTRCyclicalsSpecialty Retailers
EBSHealth CareBiotechnology
EBSBFinancialBanks
EMEIndustrialHeavy Construction
ENTGTechnologySemiconductors
ESRXHealth CareHealth Care Providers
EVRFinancialAsset Managers
FDXIndustrialDelivery Services
FFIVTechnologyTelecom Equipment
FLTFinancialFinancial Administration
FNBGFinancialBanks
FNFFinancialMortgage Finance
GIndustrialBusiness Support Services
GCBCFinancialBanks
GGALFinancialBanks
GNTXCyclicalsAuto Parts
GPSCyclicalsApparel Retailers
HUNMaterialsCommodity Chemicals
IHCFinancialLife Insurance
INGRStaplesFood Products
INTCTechnologySemiconductors
ITICFinancialMortgage Finance
JPMFinancialBanks
KBHCyclicalsHome Construction
KLICTechnologySemiconductors
LCIICyclicalsRecreational Products
LGIHCyclicalsHome Construction
LTXBFinancialBanks
LUVIndustrialAirlines
MGACyclicalsAuto Parts
MGLNHealth CareHealth Care Providers
MHKCyclicalsFurnishings
MHOCyclicalsHome Construction
MIDDCyclicalsDurable Household Products
MPCEnergyIntegrated Oil & Gas
MSITechnologyTelecom Equipment
MTZIndustrialHeavy Construction
MXLTechnologySemiconductors
NICETechnologyTelecom Equipment
NOAHFinancialAsset Managers
NTESTechnologyInternet
NXSTCyclicalsEntertainment
OCIndustrialBuilding Materials
ORBKTechnologyElectronic Equipment
ORLYCyclicalsSpecialty Retailers
OZRKFinancialBanks
PFGFinancialLife Insurance
PGRFinancialProperty-Casualty Insurance
PHMCyclicalsHome Construction
PLCECyclicalsApparel Retailers
PNCFinancialBanks
PRIFinancialLife Insurance
SHOOCyclicalsFootwear
SIVBFinancialBanks
SNACyclicalsDurable Household Products
SNXTechnologyComputer Hardware
SODACyclicalsDurable Household Products
STTFinancialAsset Managers
TCXTechnologyInternet
TDGIndustrialAerospace
TEOTechnologyMobile Telecommunications
TERTechnologySemiconductors
TJXCyclicalsApparel Retailers
TNETCyclicalsBusiness Training Agencies
TOLCyclicalsHome Construction
TROWFinancialAsset Managers
TSEMTechnologySemiconductors
TSNStaplesFood Products
UFPIIndustrialBuilding Materials
ULTACyclicalsSpecialty Retailers
UVEFinancialProperty-Casualty Insurance
VNTVTechnologySoftware
WALFinancialBanks
WLKMaterialsSpecialty Chemicals
WTFCFinancialBanks
WYNCyclicalsHotels
ZAGGMaterialsSpecialty Chemicals